TREND: IMPROVING / ONGOING / DETERIORATING
OBSERVATION: This was like going from 0 to 100 in 72hrs. From no snow to a moderate avalanche hazard in one event. There's a real mixed bag of conditions out there. Graupel layers, buried hoar on sheltered mid elevation SE aspects. Pretty big drifts on aspects lee to the north west and now transportation out onto what was heavily rimed north aspects. You name it, it is all happening out there. With such a new snow pack it's also real funky and super hard to make a real solid call, hence our confidence is low. And, with all that, the reactive surfaces are all featured and resistant so less of an issue than if we had a proper consolidated bed surface.
OUTLOOK: We will get more eyes on this as the front passes out into the Tasman and visibility improves, and then watch cautiously as the warming takes place. Play it real safe, or hit the tows until it settles just a bit, won't take long. The resorts are rolling and there's nobody there. The weather is set to clear by Tuesday and it looks like another heaving cold mass is incoming for the weekend.
Always a big thanks to everyone who is helping make this possible through our membership kickstart and through our merchandise drive. Simon@MSC
This is the standard issue for these parts, and would not to our experience present in such a new snow pack but with pockets of graupel in the mix at 35cm if it goes it would be large.
With the wind transportation over the last 24hrs this is a problem in that the accumulation is sitting on what was pretty hard packed snow and storm rime from the start of the precip event. Featured enough to be resistant however on the steeper aspects it is anticipated that it will slide. This is particular to the more northern regions of the park, BHP and Bogong where large open expanses of available transportable snow exist. Could be small, could be big, it's still blowing hard (50km). How sticky is the snow and the surface it lands on? anyones guess.
Mid elevation (1700m) and amongst the shady south trees there has been extensive buried surface hoar on the pre-existing snow. Again, on a pretty patchy and featured bed surface (8/6/2018) but can't say we didn't warn you.
The schedule for stability assessment reports will be Mondays. Locations are on or above tree-line and generally South East aspect, although this is conditions dependent.