TREND: IMPROVING / ONGOING / DETERIORATING
OBSERVATION: In the last bulletin we said that a little bit of rain to dissolve the faceted crust wouldn't be such a bad thing. To what extent this is the case has yet to be assessed but it is certainly humid out there and with any luck this will be percolate and smudge that faceted crust before it becomes a buried problem. Or it gets colder and compounds the issue.
OUTLOOK: There is a real fast furious blizzard due in the next 48 hrs!
Our advice is that if your headed out into the backcountry over the weekend, and this weak thin facet crust gets wind loaded heavy wet snow on it (on aspects south through to north east) it will be well worth a taking a look at the state of any wet decomposing facet crusts and with that a pretty cautious approach. As it gets heavier, and wetter (weaker), given this crust and the new snow will be sitting on firm planar bed surface, if overloaded it would be pretty heavy, and so would the consequences. Just calling it how we are seeing it but as of last weekend Feathertop, Bogong and Hotham BC all showed the same surface conditions. And it would only take a windloading of 20 - 30cm to become 'a thing'! Take care, theres trouble out there.
Always a big thanks to everyone who is helping make this possible through our membership kickstart and through our merchandise drive. Simon@MSC
In the event that this front produces any significant snowfall, and as mentioned above. Given the strong winds and precip, knowledge of buried thin wet faceted crusts on aspects likely to become wind loaded, there is a moderate avalanche warning forecast.
The schedule for stability assessment reports will be Mondays. Locations are on or above tree-line and generally South East aspect, although this is conditions dependent.