IMPORTANT: The following information is provided in good faith. Both the observation and forecasting methods used to provide this summary are not consistent with international standard. They are based in the collective experience of those providing input on the conditions, the hazards and the respective rating if provided. Due to both the spatial and often subjective nature of the observation input available, forecasting is at best an estimate. Understanding, knowledge and practise in self assessment of alpine hazards is crucial to safe backcountry travel in all alpine areas covered here.
14th August 2019: Wow… what a weekend (extended for some). Done pretty thorough sweep of the BC and found that ultimately it was ‘the perfect storm’. Sure there was a few small slides and an involvement in the Hotham BC, but really, given we are dealing with a 4m wind loading in popular places the whole lot landed right side up and ready for action. And action is visible. Those headed out this week really need to venture to catch fresh tracks with all the regular haunts already thoroughly tracked out. SM
Considerable Avalanche Hazard above 1800m
Melt freeze / rime ice crusts firming on North and west aspects.
There are several weak layers offering up consistent medium results at 20-30cm and lower around 50+. Good cohesion to the bed surface at 1.5m seems consistent across all observations. These weaker layers should be assessed and weighed against the bridging capacity of the overlying 30cm which has in places a strong crust or other, colder more sheltered none. The top 80cm is all -8˚ sitting on warmer -3˚ mixed density muck including localised pockets of graupel.
IMPROVING / ONGOING / DETERIORATING
A bit of a wet mixed bag of conditions leading into the next significant storm due Sunday. Still great touring conditions out on the range just a bit of changeable weather and wind. Take care, have fun! SM
14th August 2019: The surface got a little damp yesterday due to the humidity, and the cooling overnight has formed a slight crust in most areas of the back-country. If the day warms or we have some light precipitation of any sort we may see this crust break down however feel it out before launching in. Take Care. BB
12th August 2019: Amazing conditions in Woman's Downhill today. New snow averaging around 100 cm. All that new snow is sitting on firm crust, and weak layers were found in that new snow. Top 30cm is dry fist hardness, got an interesting layer of what seems like surface hoar 50cm down and layer of graupel 70cm down the snowpack. CTM PC results on both layers. LSALPINE WEATHER
14the August 2019: Given observations conducted in the vicinity of Feathertop on Monday afternoon there are still some weak layers around 15cm - 30cm associated with a density shift, buried hoar and graupel. With slow mending in a super cold snowpack (-8˚) there’s a good reason to be concerned about wind slab aspects lee to the north and west up high. Cornices are looming large and pinwheels and small collapses observed. Not out of the woods yet in the high alpine.